No major changes to the probabilities I cited last week: the most likely scenario still

Ceasefire lifts markets, but oil and inflation risks remain uncertain.

Q1 is over and it has been nothing short of eventful. Geopolitics and ensuing volatility

Markets react to war escalation, oil shocks and rising inflation risks.

As week 3 of the war on Iran draws to a close, it has been

Middle East conflict disrupts oil markets, raising inflation and global market risks.

How war and oil shocks could trigger inflation, volatility and financial instability.

SCOTUS limits Trump’s tariff powers. What it means for markets and trade.

A clear comparison of BRI and BBB on strategy, funding and timelines.

Japan election lands supermajority, shifting policy and markets.